Wed, Apr 1, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 8, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 312 | 38 | 26 | 826 |
| COL | 27 | 16 | 317 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29VANMax SassonAssists: Filip Hronek, Zeev Buium · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 1:22COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 5:21VANTeddy BluegerSHAssists: Liam Ohgren · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 11:38VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P1 16:05COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Brent Burns, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 5:02VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Max Sasson, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 9:42VANBrock BoeserAssists: Tom Willander, Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.12 xG5–2
- P2 15:21VANBrock BoeserAssists: Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–2
- P2 15:43COLSam MalinskiAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–3
- P3 0:14COLParker KellyAssists: Jack Drury, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 13:21COLBrent BurnsAssists: Brock Nelson, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.01 xG6–5
- P3 13:58COLSam MalinskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–6
- P3 14:21VANMarcus PetterssonGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Drew O'Connor · Slap, 0.09 xG7–6
- P3 18:31VANBrock BoeserENAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.27 xG8–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:41VANJake DeBrusk: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:33COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:33VANLinus Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:43VANLinus Karlsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 14:57COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDouglas – Hoglander – Räty4:06
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Boeser – O'Connor – Rossi8:10
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 3–1
- Blueger – Karlsson – Sasson11:01
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 2–3
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Ohgren10:12
xG 0.05–0.57 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Willander12:57
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Hronek – Buium5:20
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Joseph – Buium6:42
xG 0.33–0.25 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:48
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin8:13
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Kadri – Colton – O'Connor5:06
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta4:35
xG 0.06–0.47 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski14:25
xG 1.28–0.13 (90%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Burns – Kulak2:29
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Blankenburg8:32
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).