Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 211 | 16 | 325 |
| NYR | 07 | 05 | 212 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:36MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Ivan Demidov · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:20MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 9:23NYRAdam FoxAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 14:08NYRWill CuylleAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 14:55MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:21MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:49NYRNoah Laba: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:12NYRWill Borgen: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:41MTLIvan Demidov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:05
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno6:16
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Danault – Anderson – Evans3:00
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov8:40
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson2:20
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj7:36
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Struble – Hutson13:33
xG 0.74–0.62 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle10:11
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Chmelar – Sykora – Laba6:27
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault11:43
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye9:30
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchneider – Fortescue12:01
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Borgen – Robertson12:50
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Fox14:49
xG 0.61–0.98 (38%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).