Thu, Apr 2, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 15 | 09 | 120 |
| SJS | 210 | 18 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27SJSZack OstapchukAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:43SJSCollin GrafGWGAssists: Michael Misa, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 1:42SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 6:43TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Easton Cowan, William Nylander · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:03SJSAdam GaudetteENAssists: William Eklund, Zack Ostapchuk · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:35SJSMichael Misa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23TORDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:03TORDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Cowan12:04
xG 0.60–0.15 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Joshua – Groulx – Robertson3:13
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Domi – Maccelli – Knies4:14
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Domi – Joshua – Robertson5:06
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers12:27
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit4:27
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo3:15
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk7:27
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa9:13
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Eklund10:19
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Chernyshov13:08
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Desharnais12:45
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Leddy – Dickinson15:05
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin17:21
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).