Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Utah Mammoth 6, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 112 | 28 | 311 | 631 |
| SEA | 29 | 010 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41SEAJordan EberleAssists: Adam Larsson, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:45SEABobby McMannAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Kaapo Kakko · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 16:27UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:05UTALogan CooleyAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 14:56UTANick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 4:39UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 7:27UTADylan GuentherAssists: Logan Cooley, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.90 xG5–2
- P3 16:37UTAMichael CarconePPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.17 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:47UTANate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:59SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:40SEAJacob Melanson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:55SEABerkly Catton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:36UTALogan Cooley: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:25UTAKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:35SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schmaltz won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestYamamoto – Guenther – Cooley8:39
xG 1.22–0.52 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:12
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Peterka3:27
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Tanev5:52
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev12:04
xG 1.71–0.71 (71%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Cole – Durzi12:46
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino15:29
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers12:52
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Tolvanen – Melanson – Fisker Molgaard5:52
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Kakko – McMann9:32
xG 0.25–0.93 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Gaudreau – Catton8:38
xG 0.26–1.19 (18%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn14:52
xG 1.15–0.79 (59%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Lindgren11:38
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans15:46
xG 0.36–1.90 (16%)attempts 13–19goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).