Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 06 | 119 | 133 |
| NYR | 16 | 17 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:19NYRJaroslav ChmelarAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Sykora · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 15:59NYRGabe PerreaultGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Matthew Robertson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 7:13NYRGabe PerreaultPPAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 18:16NYRGabe PerreaultENAssists: J.T. Miller, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.70 xG0–4
- P3 19:27DETDavid PerronAssists: Emmitt Finnie, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:54DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:13NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04NYRDrew Fortescue: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:44DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:44DETBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:19NYRConor Sheary: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:15NYRNoah Laba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Compher – Raymond4:32
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie5:00
xG 0.21–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Kasper – Finnie4:37
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Rasmussen2:48
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson11:52
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Seider – Johansson5:27
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka10:10
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault11:13
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye8:43
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:19
xG 0.17–0.38 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Chmelar – Sykora – Laba9:30
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:00
xG 0.77–0.59 (57%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Schneider – Fortescue8:33
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Borgen – Schneider2:42
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).