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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Los Angeles Kings 7 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Final

Overtime

Home

Los Angeles Kings

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.

LAK winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR28262501620
LAK0113173814740

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:19TORMatthew KniesAssists: Max Domi · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:42TORSteven LorentzSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:11LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Jared Wright, Trevor Moore · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:55LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Mikey Anderson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:18TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
  6. P2 14:53LAKArtemi PanarinAssists: Brandt Clarke, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P2 19:47TOREaston CowanPPAssists: John Tavares, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
  8. P3 5:46LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
  9. P3 6:14LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Taylor Ward, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
  10. P3 7:22LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–6
  11. P3 9:37TORNick RobertsonAssists: Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–6
  12. P3 13:29TORMatthew KniesAssists: John Tavares, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–6
  13. OT 2:33LAKQuinton ByfieldGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:21TOREaston Cowan: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 3:21LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:04TORPhilippe Myers: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 17:01TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 17:01TORMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 1:48LAKMikey Anderson: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 5:31TORNick Robertson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 8:42LAKBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 9:47LAKJeff Malott: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 9:47TORDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:36TORMax Domi: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 19:31LAKJoel Armia: Holding2 min · PPG
  13. P2 19:47LAKScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
47% to win53% to win
← TOR attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Groulx
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORLAK
20Shots on goal40
2.3Expected goals4.4
45Shot attempts85
24Faceoffs won38
4Power plays5
14Penalty minutes12
27Hits18
16Blocked shots12
11Giveaways13
4Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestJoshua – Groulx – Robertson6:25

    xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0

  2. Domi – Maccelli – Knies6:34

    xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1

  3. Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Pezzetta4:30

    xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

  4. Tavares – Nylander – Cowan12:07

    xG 0.09–1.23 (7%)attempts 7–24goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestRielly – Stecher2:23

    xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1

  2. Rielly – Myers12:36

    xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0

  3. McCabe – Carlo10:59

    xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestMoore – Byfield – Laferriere11:36

    xG 0.90–0.05 (94%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0

  2. Kopitar – Kempe – Panarin8:51

    xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1

  3. Malott – Helenius – Ward4:18

    xG 0.10–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  4. Armia – Laughton – Wright7:46

    xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDoughty – Anderson17:25

    xG 1.00–0.21 (83%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0

  2. Edmundson – Clarke9:30

    xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1

  3. Dumoulin – Ceci7:13

    xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 4.4 xGTOR 2.3 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #4 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.37 · 13 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 18% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.

LAK winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).