Sat, Apr 4, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 312 | 09 | 313 | 634 |
| SJS | 05 | 213 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matthew Wood, Adam Wilsby · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 16:55NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 15:49SJSNick LeddyAssists: William Eklund · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 19:41SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Collin Graf, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 1:06SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 8:28NSHRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 17:26NSHErik HaulaSHAssists: Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 18:45NSHTyson JostENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Adam Wilsby · Wrist, 0.82 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:50SJSAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:49NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:18NSHBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P1 15:07SJSDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06NSHBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 14:35SJSWill Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00SJSWilliam Eklund: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:00NSHSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15SJSZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15NSHMatthew Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15NSHMatthew Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15SJSZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:39NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:49SJSKiefer Sherwood: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Marchessault – Forsberg6:05
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Jost – Evangelista2:46
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Wood2:35
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Svechkov2:20
xG 0.01–0.04 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Wilsby7:33
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Perbix – Wilsby5:33
xG 0.43–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Josi – Wilsby3:25
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Eklund10:09
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf6:37
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa4:01
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk6:57
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Desharnais13:06
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Leddy – Dickinson15:04
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Leddy – Orlov2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).