Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 214 | 27 | 431 |
| SEA | 04 | 011 | 212 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:15CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 19:37CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 10:48SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 13:08CHISacha BoisvertGWGAssists: Kevin Korchinski, Landon Slaggert · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 14:18SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Berkly Catton, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:48CHIIlya MikheyevENAssists: Wyatt Kaiser, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:33CHIFrank Nazar: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:41SEARyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P2 7:52SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 1:35CHIAnton Frondell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bedard – Lardis11:27
xG 1.02–0.31 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mikheyev – Frondell10:34
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Donato – Greene – Nazar9:52
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – Slaggert – Boisvert5:48
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rinzel16:34
xG 1.28–0.65 (66%)attempts 23–18goals 1–0
- Del Mastro – Korchinski10:45
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Tolvanen – Catton6:34
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Meyers – Fisker Molgaard6:15
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – McMann2:02
xG 0.03–0.16 (15%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers13:51
xG 0.75–1.08 (41%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Evans10:19
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Montour – Lindgren13:24
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn15:59
xG 0.32–1.51 (18%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).