Sun, Apr 5, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 5, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 47 | 17 | 520 |
| DET | 13 | 06 | 315 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40DETAlbert JohanssonAssists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:18MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:25MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:03MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jake Middleton, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 12:32MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Brock Faber · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 7:18DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 11:14DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 14:36DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 18:09MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:17MINDanila Yurov: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:57DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:23DETPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trenin – Yurov9:42
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:52
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 2–2
- Foligno – Foligno – McCarron9:13
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy12:03
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 5–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:38
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Petry – Middleton12:59
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
- Hughes – Faber18:36
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 11–21goals 2–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat13:57
xG 0.58–0.16 (79%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Compher – Kasper10:20
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie11:33
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Mazur8:04
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Bernard-Docker12:02
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka4:17
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson19:39
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).