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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 5, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal

New Jersey Devils 3, Montréal Canadiens 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.

MTL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD191615320
MTL0404010018

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:47NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P2 18:12NJDCody GlassUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P3 16:35NJDConnor BrownENAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.68 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:37MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 6:18NJDBrian Halonen: Holding2 min
  3. P2 8:27MTLLane Hutson: High sticking2 min
  4. P3 0:50NJDLuke Hughes: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 0:50NJDLuke Hughes: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 0:50MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 0:50NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Misconduct10 min
  8. P3 6:11NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 13:00NJDBrenden Dillon: Instigator2 min
  10. P3 13:00NJDBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 13:00MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 13:00NJDBrenden Dillon: Instigator misconduct10 min
  13. P3 19:06NJDConnor Brown: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
47% to win53% to win
← NJD attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Evans
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDMTL
20Shots on goal18
3.5Expected goals2.7
47Shot attempts58
29Faceoffs won23
2Power plays4
45Penalty minutes11
20Hits27
19Blocked shots11
19Giveaways13
7Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestBrown – Bratt – Hughes11:02

    xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0

  2. Cotter – McLaughlin – Halonen4:36

    xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. Bjugstad – Glass – Hameenaho7:18

    xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0

  4. Meier – Hischier – Mercer12:07

    xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamilton – Siegenthaler12:22

    xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0

  2. Dillon – Nemec9:34

    xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  3. Siegenthaler – Nemec3:09

    xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestNewhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:31

    xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1

  2. Gallagher – Danault – Veleno7:28

    xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Anderson – Evans – Bolduc7:12

    xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0

  4. Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:20

    xG 0.42–0.78 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGuhle – Xhekaj7:19

    xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  2. Matheson – Guhle4:32

    xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0

  3. Matheson – Dobson10:01

    xG 0.51–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.7 xGNJD 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1235 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.

MTL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).