Sun, Apr 5, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 1, New York Rangers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 07 | 07 | 121 |
| NYR | 17 | 516 | 210 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23NYRConor ShearyAssists: Tye Kartye, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:45WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:07NYRJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:53NYRWill CuylleAssists: Braden Schneider, Jonny Brodzinski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 8:33NYRWill CuylleAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 13:22NYRAdam SykoraAssists: Noah Laba, Jaroslav Chmelar · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P2 18:27NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 2:27NYRVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 19:28NYRWill CuylleAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.14 xG1–8
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:31NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min
- P1 19:02WSHDylan Strome: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:09WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:28NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min
- P2 17:12WSHJakob Chychrun: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:12NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:55WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:55NYRTye Kartye: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:55WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:03NYRBraden Schneider: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:23WSHConnor McMichael: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:36NYRNoah Laba: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:36WSHHendrix Lapierre: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – Lapierre – Frank4:54
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Protas2:50
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard3:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hutson2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin11:54
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Sandin – Hutson4:05
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChmelar – Sykora – Laba10:24
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye6:19
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault12:15
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:26
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox12:48
xG 1.17–0.30 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Schneider – Fortescue13:36
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 3–0
- Borgen – Robertson13:26
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).