Sun, Apr 5, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 16 | 112 | 329 |
| COL | 18 | 112 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:01STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 15:10COLParker KellyAssists: Brent Burns, Logan O'Connor · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:40COLBrent BurnsAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:09STLRobert ThomasAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 17:10STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:48STLJonatan Berggren: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:37COLNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:16STLJonatan Berggren: Holding2 min
- P3 2:26STLJack Finley: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:41COLJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:06COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud11:31
xG 1.69–0.72 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Suter – Berggren – Neighbours8:41
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Drouin – Kyrou – Dvorsky9:12
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Toropchenko – Finley7:11
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Tucker10:40
xG 1.21–0.34 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Parayko – Lindstein13:32
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux11:50
xG 0.74–0.81 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas8:54
xG 1.07–0.30 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Bardakov4:27
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Colton – Drury – Kiviranta6:40
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Nelson – Landeskog8:26
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Toews – Malinski13:00
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Manson – Kulak12:28
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Blankenburg8:20
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).