Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 115 | 18 | 03 | 3 | 435 |
| DET | 19 | 112 | 19 | 07 | 2 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06CBJDanton HeinenAssists: Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 10:27DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 6:27DETJustin FaulkAssists: Dylan Larkin, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 10:59CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Jet Greaves · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:14DETJustin FaulkAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:43CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 2. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 3. DET Patrick Kane scored
- 4. CBJ Kirill Marchenko stopped
- 5. DET Alex DeBrincat scored
- 6. CBJ Charlie Coyle scored
- 7. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 8. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 9. DET James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 10. CBJ Zach Werenski scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:36CBJConor Garland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:21DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:29DETDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:22DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:22DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:00CBJIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Heinen – Marchment9:21
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Coyle – Garland – Marchenko10:36
xG 0.52–0.41 (55%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Monahan – Sillinger – Fantilli2:36
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Sillinger – Fantilli7:13
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov5:41
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 20–3goals 0–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk10:38
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk2:17
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie14:22
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:33
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Mazur5:18
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – Kasper10:05
xG 0.43–0.63 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Faulk17:59
xG 0.86–0.36 (70%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka8:27
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson18:34
xG 0.81–1.00 (45%)attempts 21–30goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).