Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 217 | 114 | 06 | 337 |
| STL | 02 | 17 | 010 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Devon Toews, Sam Malinski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:32COLMartin NecasGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 1:40COLValeri NichushkinSHAssists: Brock Nelson · Between legs, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 15:38STLRobert ThomasAssists: Theo Lindstein, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:57COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:57STLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:50COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25COLSam Malinski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Colton7:44
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:03
xG 0.86–0.35 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor6:46
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Kadri – Landeskog – Roy4:41
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski14:38
xG 1.17–0.24 (83%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Burns – Blankenburg6:18
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Toews2:01
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud14:50
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Drouin – Kyrou2:20
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Toropchenko – Finley5:32
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Berggren – Neighbours9:48
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Tucker10:47
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko3:42
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindstein11:55
xG 0.38–0.75 (34%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).