Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Seattle Kraken 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 213 | 06 | 08 | 227 |
| MIN | 19 | 211 | 29 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23SEABrandon MontourAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:57MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:10SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 0:38MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:46MINVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 6:49MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 17:17MINJoel Eriksson EkENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:22MINVladimir Tarasenko: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:24MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:24SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:29MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:34SEARyker Evans: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:52MINBrock Faber: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50SEABrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McMann – Beniers11:37
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Tolvanen – Meyers – Fisker Molgaard6:04
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – McCann – Fisker Molgaard2:00
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Kakko – Catton9:03
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:02
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans2:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans13:04
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – McCarron – Trenin8:07
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:40
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov14:59
xG 0.68–0.64 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Brink – Yurov9:14
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin13:01
xG 0.64–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Hughes – Faber16:16
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Middleton – Hughes2:13
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).