Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Edmonton Oilers 5, Utah Mammoth 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 37 | 112 | 17 | 00 | 526 |
| UTA | 111 | 310 | 19 | 11 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Ian Cole, Michael Carcone · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 2:04EDMCurtis LazarAssists: Adam Henrique, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 8:56EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Tristan Jarry · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P1 14:43EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:28UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 15:19UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 16:06EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 19:24UTANick SchmaltzSHAssists: John Marino, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 2:09EDMColton DachAssists: Trent Frederic, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.12 xG5–4
- P3 12:56UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Sean Durzi, Michael Carcone · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–5
- OT 0:33UTAClayton KellerPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.08 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:36UTAClayton Keller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:12EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P2 7:23EDMTy Emberson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:46UTAMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:11UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:25EDMMatt Savoie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schmaltz won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Frederic – Dach11:00
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- McDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie12:34
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Henrique – Lazar – Jones6:46
xG 0.12–0.73 (14%)attempts 3–15goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen – Roslovic11:10
xG 0.07–1.04 (6%)attempts 4–25goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:53
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Murphy – Nurse19:31
xG 0.90–1.17 (43%)attempts 18–27goals 2–0
- Walman – Emberson10:53
xG 0.34–0.96 (26%)attempts 8–23goals 0–2
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Crouse – Keller13:28
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley11:39
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Peterka10:38
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Durzi11:47
xG 0.80–0.39 (68%)attempts 22–6goals 3–1
- Schmidt – Marino13:24
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
- Weegar – Sergachev15:19
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).