Wed, Apr 8, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 311 | 07 | 526 |
| SJS | 13 | 17 | 04 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:18EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Vasily Podkolzin · Poke, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:38EDMVasily PodkolzinPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 3:33EDMJack RoslovicPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 4:37SJSKiefer SherwoodAssists: Alexander Wennberg, William Eklund · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 5:53EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 14:13EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:38EDMJack Roslovic: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 5:15SJSMichael Misa: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43EDMMatt Savoie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:18SJSVincent Desharnais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:31SJSMacklin Celebrini: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28EDMJack Roslovic: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Dach – Samanski7:26
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- McDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie10:15
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Henrique – Roslovic – Jones4:22
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Frederic – Dach3:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:45
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Walman – Emberson15:36
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Murphy – Nurse15:21
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Eklund12:06
xG 0.44–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf12:03
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk8:01
xG 0.00–0.16 (2%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Chernyshov – Misa6:34
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Ferraro4:09
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Orlov – Desharnais11:26
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg3:02
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).