Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 116 | 211 | 07 | 334 |
| STL | 112 | 07 | 13 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56STLDylan HollowayPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:24WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Mark Scheifele, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 14:11WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Jacob Bryson, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:51WPGJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:00STLColton ParaykoAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:27WPGHaydn Fleury: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:55WPGJonathan Toews: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:01WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:33WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:26WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorsky won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti12:06
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo13:16
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Lambert8:03
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Koepke – Rosen6:51
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:11
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk17:34
xG 0.68–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Bryson2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Berggren – Neighbours5:11
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Berggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg5:04
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Thomas – Neighbours – Snuggerud2:51
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Dvorsky – Stenberg7:25
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux12:48
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Parayko – Lindstein14:15
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Fowler – Tucker12:02
xG 0.12–0.45 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).