Thu, Apr 9, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 4, Dallas Stars 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 214 | 09 | 431 |
| DAL | 14 | 210 | 26 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 13:02MINQuinn HughesAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:44MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:39MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 8:03DALColin BlackwellAssists: Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 16:16DALCameron HughesAssists: Colin Blackwell, Oskar Bäck · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- P2 19:49MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 4:28DALMikko RantanenAssists: Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 10:35DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 19:30DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:14MINNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:14DALLian Bichsel: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:23DALEsa Lindell: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:03MINNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03MINNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03DALTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:57DALWyatt Johnston: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05DALTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:08MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08DALAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:45MINQuinn Hughes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45DALMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45DALThomas Harley: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trenin – Yurov10:02
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Foligno – McCarron6:52
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:54
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:00
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Hughes2:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber19:25
xG 0.75–0.83 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 1–3
- Petry – Middleton9:41
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Hughes – Bäck5:54
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian9:57
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Benn – Erne – Hyry8:18
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Robertson – Bourque10:11
xG 0.18–0.44 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Harley2:16
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Myers – Lindell3:07
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Myers – Bichsel4:13
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).