Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Nashville Predators 1, Utah Mammoth 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 012 | 111 | 130 |
| UTA | 19 | 16 | 212 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 5:35UTANick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P3 3:03UTALawson CrouseAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 6:05UTADylan GuentherAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 10:22NSHErik HaulaPPAssists: Zachary L'Heureux, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:58NSHBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:37UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16NSHJustin Barron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:29UTAMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21NSHTyson Jost: Holding2 min
- P3 18:24NSHErik Haula: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestL'Heureux – Svechkov – Kemell5:27
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista8:13
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg5:34
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Haula – L'Heureux – Kemell4:19
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Ufko12:25
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Skjei – Perbix17:40
xG 0.65–0.91 (42%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
- Barron – Wilsby15:21
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Carcone – Peterka10:50
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley11:52
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:02
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller11:03
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev15:48
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino13:56
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Durzi13:31
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).