Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 113 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 335 |
| SEA | 010 | 111 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04VGKMark StoneAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:55VGKMark StonePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 17:54SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 1:11VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 6:11SEABerkly CattonAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 9:16SEABobby McMannAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SEA Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 2. VGK Mitch Marner scored
- 3. SEA Matty Beniers scored
- 4. VGK Mark Stone stopped
- 5. SEA Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 6. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 7. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 9. SEA Berkly Catton scored
- 10. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 0:00SEABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55VGKJack Eichel: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:08
xG 0.88–0.83 (51%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Saad – Hertl – Sissons10:53
xG 0.37–0.42 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith9:49
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marner – Howden – Dorofeyev11:23
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 7–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:50
xG 1.03–0.50 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Theodore – Lauzon4:05
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson21:25
xG 0.62–0.71 (46%)attempts 13–23goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McMann – Beniers14:54
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – McCann – Winterton7:34
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Winterton – Melanson – Fisker Molgaard3:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Melanson – Fisker Molgaard – Catton4:36
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans13:07
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura13:37
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Dunn17:40
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).