Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 04 | 111 | 122 |
| NSH | 114 | 17 | 01 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:01NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:34NSHMatthew WoodGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 6:54MINMichael McCarronAssists: Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:25MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:13NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:16MINMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:45NSHRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:22MINDanila Yurov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Trenin – Brink7:23
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Kaprizov2:53
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Hartman – Kaprizov6:23
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Foligno – Sturm6:18
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Middleton15:09
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Hughes – Faber19:44
xG 0.78–0.83 (49%)attempts 18–19goals 0–2
- Petry – Hunt8:43
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Haula – L'Heureux – Kemell7:44
xG 0.05–0.27 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Wood7:12
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista12:12
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Schaefer8:40
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Perbix – Ufko9:08
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Barron – Wilsby14:47
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Skjei15:24
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).