Sat, Apr 11, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 0, Dallas Stars 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 08 | 09 | 022 |
| DAL | 03 | 06 | 210 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:49DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 19:01DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Matt Duchene, Mavrik Bourque · Backhand, 0.81 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:52DALThomas Harley: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:21DALTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:21NYRTye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:21DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:48DALMavrik Bourque: Holding2 min
- P2 13:48NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:17DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:17DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:17NYRJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:53DALColin Blackwell: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:51NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:38NYRMatthew Robertson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Sheary – Kartye8:13
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Chmelar – Sykora – Laba9:32
xG 0.46–0.43 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle6:42
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault9:02
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox13:02
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson8:08
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Robertson – Schneider2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Robertson – Bourque10:20
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian4:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hryckowian2:55
xG 0.06–0.04 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Hughes – Bäck2:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel2:44
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel7:14
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin8:37
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).