Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 17 | 310 | 625 |
| TOR | 06 | 26 | 07 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Mackie Samoskevich · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:32FLACole ReinhardtAssists: Donovan Sebrango, Vinnie Hinostroza · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:32FLATomas NosekGWGAssists: Marek Alscher · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 10:55TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Easton Cowan · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:16TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 4:13FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: A.J. Greer, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 15:56FLAA.J. GreerENAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Mackie Samoskevich · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
- P3 18:07FLATomas NosekENAssists: Noah Gregor · Backhand, 0.69 xG6–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:32TORMatias Maccelli: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:34FLANolan Foote: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Schwindt – Skoog12:35
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Greer – Luostarinen – Samoskevich11:28
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Nosek – Gregor – Foote10:55
xG 0.19–0.46 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Reinhardt12:49
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSebrango – Alscher17:09
xG 1.16–0.38 (76%)attempts 21–9goals 3–0
- Forsling – Benning17:57
xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Bjornfot – Jansson14:06
xG 0.11–1.07 (9%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli13:31
xG 1.22–0.24 (84%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Robertson – Cowan – Haymes2:54
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Robertson – Haymes9:27
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Pezzetta – Quillan8:16
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Villeneuve15:57
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:15
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Stecher14:17
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).