Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 212 | 214 | 17 | 533 |
| MTL | 18 | 05 | 19 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Danton Heinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:42CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Jake Christiansen, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P1 11:48MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jake Evans, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 1:24CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 10:36CBJSean MonahanAssists: Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 3:58MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 9:59CBJCharlie CoylePPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.23 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:54MTLMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:07CBJErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CBJDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18MTLOliver Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:57CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:13CBJJake Christiansen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:42MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42CBJAdam Fantilli: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
- P3 8:27MTLAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Heinen – Marchment7:03
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Lundeström – Marchenko – Fantilli8:06
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Garland – Sillinger6:30
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Wood – Monahan – Johnson5:25
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk11:33
xG 0.84–0.06 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro15:10
xG 1.49–0.98 (60%)attempts 29–15goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Kapanen – Demidov8:29
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Dach – Newhook8:13
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Anderson – Evans – Veleno9:24
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:21
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson8:26
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hutson – Engstrom2:10
xG 0.19–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Struble – Engstrom2:16
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).