Sat, Apr 11, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 110 | 011 | 11 | 329 |
| COL | 115 | 111 | 06 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:47VGKMark StonePPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:09VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Kaedan Korczak · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:56COLNick BlankenburgAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:19VGKJack EichelGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:25COLRoss Colton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:48VGKNic Dowd: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:12VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:35COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43VGKColton Sissons: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:36COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:53COLBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Kolesar – Smith7:36
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Saad – Hertl – Sissons7:41
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Marner – Howden – Dorofeyev3:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Howden – Dorofeyev5:58
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson17:06
xG 0.80–0.55 (59%)attempts 23–19goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak9:06
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore14:41
xG 0.79–0.95 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Necas10:01
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Lehkonen – MacKinnon10:28
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor6:51
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Roy – Colton – Kiviranta8:22
xG 0.16–0.69 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski11:49
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Manson – Kulak5:11
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kulak – Blankenburg4:07
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).