Mon, Apr 13, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
New York Rangers 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 16 | 014 | 227 |
| FLA | 27 | 06 | 13 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35FLACole ReinhardtAssists: Tobias Bjornfot, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 11:31FLAMackie SamoskevichUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 15:19NYRMatthew RobertsonAssists: Noah Laba · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 17:20NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: Adam Fox, Alexis Lafrenière · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 18:10FLACole ReinhardtGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Donovan Sebrango · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:58FLACole Reinhardt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:02NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:01FLAWilmer Skoog: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48FLALuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:48NYRTye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:49FLAWilmer Skoog: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault11:38
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle9:40
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye9:46
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Chmelar – Sykora – Laba8:26
xG 0.06–0.35 (16%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox16:30
xG 1.52–0.19 (89%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Borgen – Robertson13:25
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Schneider – Fortescue10:03
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Luostarinen – Samoskevich9:53
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Reinhardt11:01
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Boqvist – Schwindt – Skoog9:30
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nosek – Gregor – Foote8:07
xG 0.01–0.51 (3%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bjornfot – Benning4:32
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bjornfot – Jansson13:17
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Forsling – Benning8:51
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).