Mon, Apr 13, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 26 | 08 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 226 |
| PHI | 07 | 26 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41CARBradly NadeauAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 15:30CARNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 7:57PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Denver Barkey, Noah Cates · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 10:30PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Porter Martone, Tyson Foerster · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Trevor Zegras stopped
- 2. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 4. CAR Bradly Nadeau stopped
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 6. CAR K'Andre Miller stopped
- 7. PHI Tyson Foerster scored
- 8. CAR Alexander Nikishin stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:05PHIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43CARSean Walker: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38CARNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake14:20
xG 0.90–0.28 (76%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jankowski – Carrier8:49
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – Brind'Amour – Robinson11:13
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Kotkaniemi – Nadeau12:11
xG 0.43–0.91 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Legault11:21
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Miller20:17
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 28–10goals 0–1
- Walker – Nikishin19:30
xG 0.47–1.23 (28%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Barkey – Michkov9:55
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Foerster12:26
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway9:13
xG 0.00–0.31 (1%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Konecny – Martone11:36
xG 0.06–0.71 (7%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Andrae10:42
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale19:20
xG 0.73–0.59 (56%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York2:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).