Mon, Apr 13, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 112 | 38 | 526 |
| CHI | 15 | 04 | 07 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58CHIRyan GreeneSHAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:02BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:00BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 5:38BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 11:13BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 18:35BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Zach Benson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:44CHISam Rinzel: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:49BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48BUFBeck Malenstyn: Holding2 min
- P3 2:02BUFJason Zucker: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:49BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:21BUFLogan Stanley: Holding2 min
- P3 9:04CHILouis Crevier: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Frondell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs13:04
xG 1.20–0.11 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 2–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn9:32
xG 0.49–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Benson10:06
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak6:42
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power15:07
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:30
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Stanley – Timmins10:18
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Toninato – Slaggert5:54
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard2:51
xG 0.07–0.18 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Donato – Nazar4:57
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Donato – Nazar – Lardis3:36
xG 0.01–0.20 (5%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Mastro – Korchinski10:40
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel12:52
xG 0.13–0.79 (14%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
- Vlasic – Crevier13:58
xG 0.06–1.26 (4%)attempts 3–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).