Mon, Apr 13, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 18 | 09 | 02 | 3 | 232 |
| EDM | 010 | 113 | 08 | 00 | 2 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:05COLSam MalinskiAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:49EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Matt Savoie, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 2. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
- 3. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 4. COL Martin Necas scored
- 5. EDM Jack Roslovic stopped
- 6. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:20EDMAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 6:14EDMIsaac Howard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:45COLBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:54COLValeri Nichushkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:30COLParker Kelly: Closing hand on puck2 min
- OT 2:06EDMKasperi Kapanen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Samanski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Necas13:52
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton10:43
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Drury – O'Connor – Bardakov5:52
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – Kiviranta7:03
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAhcan – Blankenburg8:43
xG 0.87–0.20 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Malinski15:42
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Kulak – Malinski3:21
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Roslovic – Howard7:32
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Frederic – Dach – Samanski9:14
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- McDavid – Podkolzin – Savoie12:16
xG 0.53–0.84 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Henrique – Lazar – Kapanen6:31
xG 0.04–0.45 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Nurse14:58
xG 0.40–0.29 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Walman – Bouchard2:57
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bouchard2:11
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).