Mon, Apr 13, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 010 | 210 | 223 |
| VGK | 010 | 216 | 412 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:38VGKMark StoneSHAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 18:54VGKReilly SmithAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 0:31VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 2:34WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Colin Miller, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:37VGKRasmus AnderssonAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 4:41WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 5:42VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 7:38VGKJack EichelPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:37WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min
- P1 18:55WPGGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:21VGKNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:06VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
- P2 11:43VGKIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:43VGKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:43WPGNikita Chibrikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:27WPGNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:36VGKMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:45WPGJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:44VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:44WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:05WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 10:10WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:50
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Chibrikov – Yager6:42
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Koepke – Rosen6:50
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Lowry – Perfetti – Lambert7:04
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey10:24
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Samberg3:39
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Bryson4:14
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Hertl – Sissons7:10
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith6:49
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel6:52
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Marner – Howden – Dorofeyev7:09
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Korczak10:08
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:26
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson10:49
xG 0.45–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).