Tue, Apr 14, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 212 | 05 | 229 |
| PHI | 28 | 112 | 15 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08PHIPorter MartoneAssists: Matvei Michkov, Oliver Bonk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:42PHIOliver BonkAssists: Matvei Michkov, Hunter McDonald · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 6:50MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Alexandre Texier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:52PHIMatvei MichkovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 19:49MTLJake EvansAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Joseph Veleno · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 12:00PHIAlex BumpAssists: Porter Martone · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:21PHINick Seeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:43PHITyson Foerster: Holding2 min
- P3 4:48PHIHunter McDonald: Interference2 min
- P3 10:19PHIHunter McDonald: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:19MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:12MTLAlexandre Texier: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:12PHIDavid Jiricek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:50
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Evans – Veleno8:59
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Dach – Bolduc – Kapanen7:25
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Texier – Newhook – Demidov10:04
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson4:15
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Guhle – Engstrom10:26
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Struble – Hutson2:41
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBump – Barkey – Martone13:28
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Cates – Foerster – Michkov10:43
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Richard – Grundstrom – Gaucher5:50
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Glendening – Hathaway4:27
xG 0.01–0.14 (9%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Jiricek15:29
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae12:45
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- McDonald – Bonk10:09
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).