Tue, Apr 14, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Winnipeg Jets 3, Utah Mammoth 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 16 | 212 | 324 |
| UTA | 114 | 115 | 37 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05UTALogan CooleyAssists: Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:54UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 17:09WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 7:16UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:42UTAJJ PeterkaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 12:36WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 14:23WPGIsak RosenPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:36UTAAlexander KerfootENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:43UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:03WPGAdam Lowry: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:13WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:15WPGBrayden Yager: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:11UTALawson Crouse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:06WPGBrad Lambert: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:00WPGJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:49UTAMichael Carcone: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi4:29
xG 0.51–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Perfetti4:31
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Vilardi – Chibrikov4:51
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Koepke – Yager4:04
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Heinola7:26
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bryson – Heinola4:08
xG 0.21–0.21 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Samberg5:25
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Carcone – Peterka9:13
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley8:05
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev6:54
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:30
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev10:01
xG 1.15–0.34 (77%)attempts 24–5goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Marino12:06
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Cole – Marino2:48
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).