Tue, Apr 14, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, St. Louis Blues 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 38 | 16 | 19 | 523 |
| STL | 15 | 316 | 310 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14PITRutger McGroartyAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:40PITAvery HayesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 17:23PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 18:44STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 2:58PITElmer SoderblomAssists: Ben Kindel, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P2 4:51STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 10:37STLLogan MaillouxAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 15:49STLJimmy SnuggerudPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.28 xG4–4
- P3 4:11STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 4:55STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jordan Binnington · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–6
- P3 12:20PITAvery HayesAssists: Ryan Shea, Arturs Silovs · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–6
- P3 18:17STLDylan HollowayENAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Logan Mailloux · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:38PITElmer Soderblom: Interference2 min
- P2 10:51STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:34PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15STLDylan Holloway: Holding2 min
- P3 19:46PITIlya Solovyov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Brazeau – Koivunen11:04
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Acciari – Koppanen – Harvey-Pinard8:52
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Hayes – McGroarty9:19
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Mantha – Soderblom – Kindel10:58
xG 0.48–1.15 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Clifton – Shea15:34
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Graves – Solovyov12:27
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 13–13goals 2–3
- St. Ivany – Livanavage17:46
xG 0.75–1.23 (38%)attempts 9–22goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud13:29
xG 1.16–0.37 (76%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Suter10:37
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Drouin – Neighbours – Dvorsky10:33
xG 0.40–0.42 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko9:30
xG 0.32–0.56 (37%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux14:17
xG 1.04–0.37 (74%)attempts 20–10goals 3–1
- Fowler – Parayko17:13
xG 0.92–0.30 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 0–2
- Tucker – Kessel11:39
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).