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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 14, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
LAK1421501500334
VAN172110611425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:21VANElias PetterssonAssists: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:15LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Alex Laferriere, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:52VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:04LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
  5. P2 2:17LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Drew Doughty, Quinton Byfield · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 9:20VANZeev BuiumAssists: Nils Hoglander, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.20 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:58VANJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tom Willander · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 19:25LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 6:53VANTy Mueller: Holding2 min
  3. P2 18:02LAKQuinton Byfield: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 18:02VANFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 2:59LAKJared Wright: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P3 7:31VANFilip Hronek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P3 7:31VANFilip Hronek: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 7:31LAKMathieu Joseph: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
47% to win53% to win
← LAK attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Byfield
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKVAN
34Shots on goal25
3.2Expected goals2.3
56Shot attempts50
23Faceoffs won39
2Power plays2
11Penalty minutes11
18Hits20
13Blocked shots8
10Giveaways17
3Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestKopitar – Kempe – Panarin15:07

    xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0

  2. Moore – Byfield – Laferriere12:32

    xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0

  3. Armia – Laughton – Wright10:32

    xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1

  4. Joseph – Helenius – Ward4:03

    xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDoughty – Anderson16:55

    xG 1.09–0.21 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0

  2. Dumoulin – Ceci14:35

    xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1

  3. Edmundson – Clarke14:56

    xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Hoglander10:23

    xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

  2. Karlsson – O'Connor – Rossi8:34

    xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0

  3. Douglas – Räty – Mueller4:55

    xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Blueger – Boeser – Ohgren11:07

    xG 0.17–0.56 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Kudryavtsev – Buium2:06

    xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0

  2. Hronek – Buium16:46

    xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1

  3. Pettersson – Willander14:23

    xG 0.22–0.68 (25%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.3 xGLAK 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #387 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.97 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).