Wed, Apr 15, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 1, Florida Panthers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 17 | 012 | 126 |
| FLA | 16 | 414 | 38 | 828 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57FLAVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Wilmer Skoog · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:37FLALuke KuninGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Marek Alscher · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:56FLAA.J. GreerPPAssists: Noah Gregor, Ludvig Jansson · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 9:39FLAMike BenningAssists: Wilmer Skoog, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 12:41FLAMike BenningAssists: Donovan Sebrango, Mackie Samoskevich · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 16:12DETJustin FaulkAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 8:56FLACole SchwindtAssists: Marek Alscher, Mikulas Hovorka · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–6
- P3 9:37FLACole ReinhardtAssists: Luke Kunin, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.91 xG1–7
- P3 18:12FLALuke KuninAssists: Cole Reinhardt · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–8
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:11FLACole Reinhardt: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:33DETJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45FLAVinnie Hinostroza: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schwindt won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Mazur – Finnie3:17
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – DeBrincat2:35
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Compher – Mazur2:03
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Perron – Compher2:26
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson2:47
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sandin-Pellikka3:52
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka3:12
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Kunin – Reinhardt12:03
xG 1.87–0.58 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Gregor – Schwindt – Samoskevich10:09
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Greer – Boqvist – Foote10:28
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Luostarinen – Skoog11:07
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBjornfot – Jansson14:54
xG 1.63–0.68 (71%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
- Alscher – Hovorka13:11
xG 1.01–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Benning – Sebrango14:51
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).