Wed, Apr 15, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 18 | 04 | 123 |
| VGK | 06 | 18 | 312 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:24SEAShane WrightAssists: Jani Nyman, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 17:35VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Reilly Smith, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:23VGKMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 12:01VGKReilly SmithAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 16:36VGKReilly SmithAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 13:23SEABen Meyers: Holding2 min
- P2 14:53SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Marner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Winterton – Meyers8:39
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kakko – Nyman – Wright10:45
xG 0.40–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton9:28
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn15:45
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Dunn – Mahura2:12
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura14:14
xG 0.57–0.68 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Howden – Dorofeyev10:50
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel3:18
xG 0.35–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Eichel – Marner7:40
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Smith – Hertl – Kolesar4:48
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:08
xG 1.11–0.28 (80%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson20:22
xG 0.60–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak13:44
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).