Thu, Apr 16, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
St. Louis Blues 5, Utah Mammoth 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 27 | 211 | 529 |
| UTA | 19 | 211 | 03 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 16:55UTAMichael CarconeAssists: JJ Peterka, John Marino · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:45UTALawson CrouseAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:14STLRobert ThomasAssists: Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:07STLRobert ThomasAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 18:52UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:03STLLogan MaillouxGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:22STLRobert ThomasENAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:13UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00STLPhilip Broberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00UTALogan Cooley: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schmaltz won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Suter10:50
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Berggren – Neighbours – Dvorsky11:26
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Walker – Toropchenko – Finley12:59
xG 0.36–0.56 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud12:10
xG 0.79–1.01 (44%)attempts 9–21goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux17:15
xG 1.09–0.79 (58%)attempts 15–19goals 3–1
- Holl – Tucker16:20
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – Parayko15:36
xG 0.71–0.99 (42%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Carcone – Peterka12:03
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Keller – Yamamoto – Cooley2:42
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev9:20
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Carcone – Yamamoto – Cooley2:27
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino13:12
xG 0.95–0.29 (77%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Marino – Simashev2:43
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone12:47
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).