Thu, Apr 16, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 110 | 08 | 128 |
| CGY | 02 | 19 | 29 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:21CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Matvei Gridin, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:43LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Trevor Moore, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 6:08CGYZayne ParekhGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:20CGYJoel FarabeeENAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.48 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:28LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:26CGYAydar Suniev: Interference2 min
- P2 3:37LAKSamuel Helenius: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12CGYJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:38CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38LAKAlex Laferriere: Interference2 min
- P3 2:43LAKBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Panarin13:15
xG 1.40–0.11 (93%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Byfield – Laferriere12:55
xG 0.87–0.08 (92%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Joseph – Helenius – Ward5:30
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Armia – Laughton – Wright7:48
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke12:37
xG 1.46–0.14 (92%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:53
xG 1.22–0.20 (86%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci13:32
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Olofsson – Suniev6:32
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sharangovich – Kerins – Klapka8:08
xG 0.07–0.66 (9%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee10:44
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin10:48
xG 0.14–0.84 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Brzustewicz13:25
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pachal – Brzustewicz2:15
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Maatta – Wiebe2:08
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).