Tue, Sep 29, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 08 | 05 | 11 | 120 |
| CAR | 03 | 07 | 04 | 01 | 015 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 4:55FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:32CARK'Andre Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:36CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01FLABokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:01CARNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:03FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 2:52CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:40FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12FLABrady Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:36FLAGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:28CARJackson Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:02FLABokondji Imama: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CARSean Walker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:05FLAGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:45CARTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk8:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Luostarinen – Lundell – Vilmanis5:56
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:07
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Imama5:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola14:15
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudas9:21
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling9:21
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Aho – Robinson – Svechnikov7:11
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jankowski – Carrier4:13
xG 0.01–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers7:40
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake8:49
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller11:15
xG 0.07–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield11:51
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Legault9:19
xG 0.08–0.56 (12%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).