Tue, Sep 29, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 6, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 15 | 17 | 39 | 12 | 623 |
| EDM | 113 | 19 | 315 | 00 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51VANPaul CotterSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:26EDMEvan BouchardUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:07VANMarco RossiAssists: Liam Ohgren, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 14:34EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid, Alex Formenton · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 1:10VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:55VANMax SassonAssists: Drew O'Connor, Linus Karlsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 5:15VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 8:56EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Shea · Snap, 0.26 xG5–3
- P3 9:20EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 19:17EDMVasily PodkolzinPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.09 xG5–5
- OT 1:59VANPaul CotterGWGAssists: Max Sasson · Backhand, 0.25 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:35VANTom Willander: Holding2 min
- P1 16:51VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:03EDMMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41VANMax Sasson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:21EDMKasperi Kapanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:08VANLinus Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sasson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – O'Connor – Sasson10:08
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Boeser – Rossi – Ohgren10:45
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Gallagher – Cotter – Bains7:57
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Lekkerimäki10:53
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Buium16:23
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–18goals 3–1
- Schenn – Pettersson11:39
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Willander – Buium2:39
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin12:14
xG 1.12–0.06 (95%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Formenton11:42
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 3–0
- Joseph – Jones – Dach10:09
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Frederic – Howard – Michaels6:55
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:42
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 21–4goals 2–0
- Shea – Mukhamadullin9:11
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Shea – Bouchard3:35
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).