Tue, Sep 29, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 16 | 114 | 226 |
| VGK | 215 | 113 | 29 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30VGKVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:22VGKTrevor ConnellyAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 12:23CHIJordan GreenwayAssists: Ryan Greene, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 15:12VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 4:04CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:43VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Nic Dowd, Marc Gatcomb · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 17:27VGKMark StoneENAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Slap, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:02CHIAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:29CHINick Lardis: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:56VGKParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:48CHIIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49VGKMarc Gatcomb: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Bertuzzi – Kantserov2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Bertuzzi – Frondell2:44
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Mangiapane – Frondell3:40
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Smith – Greene10:33
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Rinzel5:35
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel2:05
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Cole – Rinzel8:34
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Connelly8:37
xG 1.03–0.21 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marner – Howden12:18
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:01
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Dowd – Gatcomb – Bowman6:34
xG 0.07–0.44 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Lauzon15:04
xG 1.12–0.34 (77%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:30
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Andersson – Wotherspoon15:38
xG 0.64–0.99 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).