Wed, Sep 30, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 4, Colorado Avalanche 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 212 | 16 | 431 |
| COL | 210 | 410 | 29 | 829 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:14LAKBrian DumoulinAssists: Alex Laferriere, Alex Turcotte · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 17:58COLParker KellyAssists: Josh Manson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 0:23COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 1:28LAKJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Erik Haula, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 8:33COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 16:01COLNicolas RoyGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Parker Kelly · Poke, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 17:50LAKTrevor MooreSHAssists: Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P2 18:34COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.21 xG3–6
- P3 11:51LAKArtemi PanarinAssists: Drew Doughty, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 14:03COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–7
- P3 15:06COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.19 xG4–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:48LAKAndre Lee: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:21COLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:55COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P1 19:12LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:52LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:19COLT.J. Hughes: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15LAKJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:30COLNoah Juulsen: Interference2 min
- P3 13:20LAKBrandt Clarke: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:15LAKAlex Turcotte: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Byfield won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lee – Helenius6:17
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Turcotte – Laferriere10:27
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kempe – Panarin – Byfield11:56
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Haula – Laughton – Moore7:55
xG 0.18–0.79 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke10:42
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Anderson11:56
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Dumoulin11:36
xG 0.18–1.08 (14%)attempts 10–12goals 1–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kadri – MacKinnon – Necas2:05
xG 0.26–0.25 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas9:10
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Roy – Kelly – Svechkov2:59
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Svechkov – Hughes2:09
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Malinski7:11
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson8:00
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 2–1
- Toews – Makar9:57
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).