Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 213 | 07 | 326 |
| CBJ | 38 | 16 | 29 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Noah Ostlund, Owen Power · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:51CBJCole SillingerAssists: Charlie Coyle, Denton Mateychuk · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 17:58CBJMatthew KniesPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 18:44CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski, Matthew Knies · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 1:25BUFJack QuinnAssists: Zach Benson, Noah Ostlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 7:45CBJMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Emil Andrae, Kent Johnson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 13:14BUFKonsta HeleniusAssists: Ryan McLeod, Owen Power · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 14:21CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 17:53CBJMathieu OlivierENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:05CBJCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:40BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:03BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58CBJMathieu Olivier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:58BUFZach Metsa: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:58CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:06CBJKent Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:10CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:23BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Norris – Doan10:19
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Quinn – Ostlund – Benson11:13
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Kulich6:00
xG 0.05–0.16 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- McLeod – Krebs – Helenius10:05
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrevier – Power10:19
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – Metsa8:12
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Power2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Heinen – Garland – Lomberg6:28
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Monahan – Nichushkin – Garland2:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Monahan – Nichushkin – Voronkov6:19
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:18
xG 0.56–0.67 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Mateychuk2:02
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Soucy – Andrae8:45
xG 0.07–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Soucy2:40
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).