Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 29 | 09 | 112 | 330 |
| NSH | 06 | 17 | 07 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35MINNick FolignoAssists: Michael McCarron, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:48MINBlake ColemanPPGWGAssists: Bobby Brink, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 9:23NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:42MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:05MINJared Spurgeon: Holding2 min
- P1 6:22NSHNick Perbix: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:47NSHMavrik Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:07NSHJack Drury: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:20MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12MINBlake Coleman: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:02NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy3:48
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 1–0
- Foligno – Foligno – McCarron7:13
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Coleman – Eriksson Ek – Boldy6:14
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hartman – Trenin – Brink7:33
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Hughes13:16
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Brodin – Maatta9:37
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hunt7:54
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Kerfoot2:32
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Colton – Bourque7:27
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Hoglander – Wood4:46
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Drury – Edstrom – Schaefer7:30
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix11:02
xG 0.33–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Ufko9:53
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hague – Wilsby12:11
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).