Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 9, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 415 | 49 | 18 | 932 |
| VAN | 02 | 38 | 412 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26EDMVasily PodkolzinPPAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:26EDMOwen MichaelsAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 14:42EDMEvan BouchardUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–0
- P1 19:32EDMRyan SheaAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 0:27EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
- P2 4:31VANPaul CotterAssists: Liam Ohgren · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
- P2 5:04EDMTrent FredericAssists: Isaac Howard · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–1
- P2 5:47VANBrock BoeserAssists: Paul Cotter, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–2
- P2 7:49EDMConnor McDavidSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG7–2
- P2 8:23EDMKasperi KapanenSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG8–2
- P2 19:59VANArshdeep BainsAssists: Elias Pettersson, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.16 xG8–3
- P3 1:53VANMarco RossiAssists: Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Tom Willander · Backhand, 0.15 xG8–4
- P3 4:43VANMarco RossiAssists: Arshdeep Bains, Luke Schenn · Deflected, 0.13 xG8–5
- P3 7:37VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.07 xG8–6
- P3 9:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.08 xG9–6
- P3 18:31VANJamie OleksiakAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.08 xG9–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:31VANBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14VANJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:02VANLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:24EDMTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:59EDMJake Walman: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:26EDMMax Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50VANMarco Rossi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27VANJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sasson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin12:01
xG 1.80–0.20 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Frederic – Howard – Samanski6:34
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Joseph – Formenton – Michaels10:30
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 1–2
- Kapanen – Jones – Dach8:58
xG 0.11–0.65 (15%)attempts 8–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:04
xG 1.63–0.25 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Murphy3:53
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Shea – Bouchard2:05
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Karlsson6:10
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Rossi – Bains – Lekkerimäki4:31
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–2goals 2–1
- Gallagher – O'Connor – Sasson5:37
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – Rossi – Ohgren4:21
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Hronek3:59
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Willander3:16
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buium3:53
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).