Fri, Oct 2, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 4, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 15 | 28 | 424 |
| DAL | 07 | 010 | 08 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34STLMason McTavishGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 13:05STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Philip Broberg, Pius Suter · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 17:37STLJimmy SnuggerudENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–0
- P3 17:52STLPius SuterENAssists: Connor McMichael, Joel Hofer · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:09STLCam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P2 5:53STLJake Neighbours: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:53STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53DALArttu Hyry: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:21DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:12STLRoss Johnston: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:25DALJamie Benn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:49DALThomas Harley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:49STLBrandon Carlo: Kneeing5 min
- P3 2:49STLBrandon Carlo: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:29DALTyler Seguin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hyry won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud8:52
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – McMichael – McTavish5:11
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnston – Toropchenko – Suter3:43
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Berggren – Neighbours – Dvorsky5:21
xG 0.05–0.55 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Jiricek9:49
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Fowler – Carlo10:31
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Steel – Hyry5:40
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian7:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston2:30
xG 0.07–0.26 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Faksa – Bäck – Kiviranta6:35
xG 0.22–0.41 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Bichsel11:18
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley11:22
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist9:38
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).