Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 05 | 111 | 04 | 120 |
| EDM | 111 | 04 | 211 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51EDMOwen MichaelsAssists: Alex Formenton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:06SEABobby McMannPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 17:33EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Shea · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 18:55EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:58SEARyan Winterton: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:27SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:14SEARyan Lindgren: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:14EDMTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:30SEAVince Dunn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:30EDMColton Dach: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:36SEARyker Evans: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:37SEAPhilipp Grubauer: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:37EDMMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:22EDMConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07EDMMax Jones: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:55EDMMattias Ekholm: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:55SEABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Michaels won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestWinterton – Wright – Catton7:40
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – McMann11:29
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Samoskevich – Meyers5:43
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- McCann – Kakko – Beniers9:26
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lindgren – Fleury9:17
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:47
xG 0.31–0.72 (30%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans14:09
xG 0.59–1.01 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin14:20
xG 0.98–0.13 (89%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Jones – Dach7:07
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Howard – Samanski4:04
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Joseph – Formenton – Michaels9:40
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:51
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Walman – Emberson6:43
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Shea – Bouchard2:50
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).