Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 08 | 05 | 124 |
| VAN | 05 | 09 | 412 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Zayne Parekh, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 1:28VANLiam OhgrenAssists: Paul Cotter, Tom Willander · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 9:04VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Liam Ohgren, Tom Willander · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 16:33VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: Linus Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 17:16VANAatu RätyENAssists: Linus Karlsson, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:55VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:55CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:40CGYJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:56CGYKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P1 14:17VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:16CGYKevin Bahl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:16VANLuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:16CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:31CGYJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:17CGYJake Middleton: Holding2 min
- P3 7:58CGYZayne Parekh: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:58VANDrew O'Connor: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:40VANMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:07CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin11:32
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
- Pospisil – Klapka – Tsyplakov6:01
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Farabee – Honzek6:29
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Sharangovich – Othmann7:55
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl11:41
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Hanley – Whitecloud2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Middleton – Parekh11:54
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Cotter – Ohgren9:34
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gallagher – O'Connor – Räty6:24
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bains – Lekkerimäki – Sasson6:32
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Karlsson – Rossi10:30
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 6–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Pettersson5:15
xG 0.46–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Willander – Buium2:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Pettersson4:27
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).