Sun, Oct 4, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Utah Mammoth 2, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 06 | 19 | 115 | 230 |
| NYR | 15 | 08 | 39 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:18NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 14:29UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 3:15NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 12:47NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Tye Kartye · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 14:57UTAAndrew PeekeAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:45NYREeli TolvanenENAssists: Will Cuylle, Igor Shesterkin · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:31NYRMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P1 10:39UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:18UTABarrett Hayton: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:18NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:03UTANick Schmaltz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:28UTAMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P2 14:01NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01NYRWill Cuylle: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:01UTAMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:03NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:03UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:48UTAMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Schmaltz – Keller10:49
xG 1.07–0.49 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Crouse – Hayton – McBain7:54
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Guenther – Cooley10:49
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Stenlund – Carcone – But6:27
xG 0.18–0.72 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev13:36
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino14:09
xG 1.05–0.79 (57%)attempts 26–12goals 0–2
- Marino – Sergachev2:50
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Dorofeyev – Kartye10:42
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:43
xG 0.86–0.56 (61%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Tolvanen – Cuylle – Laba9:01
xG 0.23–1.25 (15%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox11:28
xG 0.87–0.46 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Fox – Smits2:28
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Durzi2:04
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).